NBA overreactions: Joel Embiid back, Boston Celtics title contenders, Thunder curse?

We’re nearing the halfway point of the NBA season, and it’s time to establish what’s real and what’s not in a given week.

The season seemed like it was going chalk: The Thunder were going to run away with a championship, the Knicks were running away with the East, and the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic was back in the MVP mix. These things could still be true, but the paths are much more unpredictable than we’d originally thought.

With the various turns of the season, I’m here to help you filter through what’s a sustainable trend and what’s just a hot stretch of games. Which is why we’re introducing this column asking: Is this cap or no cap?

This week, we ask about some recent streaks and the possible return of an MVP candidate.

MVP Embiid is back

This season looked like a changing of the guard in Philly. Tyrese Maxey was putting up real MVP numbers and rookie VJ Edgecombe looked like he’d end up as part of the best backcourt in the league in the near future. Meanwhile, Joel Embiid (and his contract) felt like an albatross for that roster. He didn’t look healthy, had no lift, and slowed down the offense. He’d played just nine out of the team’s first 23 games and averaged just 25 minutes a game with career lows in points (18.2), field-goal percentage (40.7), 3-point percentage (21.4), rebounds (5.6), and pretty much every other stat across the board.

After an abysmal 4-for-21 game against the Lakers on Dec. 7, though, Embiid has found a new gear. His next game, a 10-point win against the Pacers, saw him hit his season high of 39 points in a season-high 32 minutes. Since then, he’s averaged 29 points, eight rebounds and four assists. Most importantly, they’ve won three out of their last four with Embiid, Maxey and Paul George all in the lineup. (It should have been four in a row if not for Monday’s loss to the Denver Nuggets’ bench).

Verdict: Cap

Look, we all know the East is wide open, but I’m not sure it’s open enough for me to believe Embiid will lead the 76ers to a deep run. I’m not even sure what he’s doing is sustainable. We’ve had too much of a sample size of Embiid’s health issues to believe the past seven games are what we’ll get for the rest of the year.

The Celtics are legitimate contenders 

Ever since Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles last May in the playoffs and the Celtics followed up by gutting much of their championship roster, there was a belief that this season would just be a gap year. Yet here they are near the top of the East. They’re second in 3-pointers made per game, second in offensive rating, third in net rating, and have put up multiple 140-point games.

A lot of this is due to the leap from one Jaylen Brown, who is just coming off of an historic feat of being the first player ever to conduct a campaign where he complained about being snubbed for player of the month. Yes, it was nonsensical to care that much about an award that not many people care about, but it did motivate him to have his best game of the season – a 50-point domination of the Clippers, where he also locked up Kawhi Leonard. But can Brown carry the Celtics to the Finals?

Verdict: No cap

OK, this is a bit of a copout because I actually don’t think Brown is enough. First of all, he’s shooting out of his mind right now, nailing nearly 60% of his long 2s. Eventually, that’ll come back to earth. Second, the Celtics are cobbling together young bigs who are playing well, but I’d be concerned with team rebounding come playoff time.

So why don’t I think it’s cap? Easy: Tatum. If Tatum can return and be somewhat what he was at this point last year, that gives the Celtics a real shot. I still think the Knicks and Pistons are at the top of the conference. But if Tatum makes a miraculous return, that changes everything.

The 65-game rule needs to change

Everybody who loves the NBA held their breaths last week when Jokic went down in a heap from what looked like a pretty devastating knee injury. He was not too far removed from the greatest game in Christmas history with 56 points, 16 rebounds and 15 assists against the Timberwolves. As well as the Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were playing, Jokic was really solidifying another MVP season and was making the Nuggets real contenders despite injuries. While the injury wasn’t a season-ender, the bone bruise will keep him out of action for at least a month.

This means he’ll return at risk of playing fewer than 65 games – the threshold the NBA established for a chance to win its awards. So, Jokic may come back and finish the season as the leading rebounder, leader in assists, and having maybe his best year ever … and he would immediately be disqualified from MVP.

So should that rule change?

Verdict: No cap

I think the rule is nonsensical. First of all, if Jokic ends up playing fewer than 65 games and someone like SGA plays 80 or so, SGA is going to win the award. That’s pretty much how all of the awards have gone, especially when you have great players like you have this year. The problem is the arbitrary ruling robs Jokic of the chance of being top 2 or top 3, which is something that bolsters a Hall of Fame resume.

The rule actually should have been changed last year when the San Antonio Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama was disqualified for going out with an injury and only playing 46 games. But he was so clearly the best defender. He still led the league in blocks by a wide margin and should have been rewarded for it. The rule should be abolished because voters are smart enough to rule out people who don’t play enough games on their own.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are victims of the David Dennis Curse

A few weeks ago, I was on “SportsCenter” and was asked if anyone was going to dethrone the Thunder. The team was 24-1 and on its way to the NBA Cup championship (so I thought), the record for most wins in a season (so I thought), and the first back-to-back title in seven years.

So my answer was pretty firm: 

A “lock!” I said.

Since then, the team is barely above .500! They’ve been owned by the Spurs three times in a row, lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves, lost to the Phoenix Suns thanks to a Devin Booker game-winner, and on Monday night they got destroyed by the lowly Hornets at home, which should count as two losses. The team is 30-7, but chances are its shot at being historically great is out of the window.

Verdict: Cap!

Why? Because I said so, damnit. I take no responsibility for what has happened to the Thunder. Have a good day.

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