NBA overreactions: A Thunder must-win, Ja = Trae, Jokic injury a blessing in disguise?

We are officially less than a month until the Feb. 5 trade deadline and the NBA is already one superstar trade down: Trae Young was dealt from the Atlanta Hawks to the Washington Wizards. The trade itself doesn’t really move the needle on the playoff picture this season, but its ramifications have been felt and have larger meanings for other moves around the league.

Which is why we’re back with another set of overreactions around the NBA, from other possible trades to some big games this week. Let’s get into it. 

The Tuesday night matchup against the Spurs is a must-win for the Thunder

Let’s rewind to a month ago: The Thunder were on pace for the greatest season ever. They were on pace to shatter the regular-season wins record, win the NBA Cup and cruise to the NBA Finals as the greatest single-season team of all time.

Then, Wemby and the Spurs rolled into Vegas.

Since then the Spurs have dominated the Thunder, winning three games against them with the past two being in decisive fashion. And the Thunder have been barely a .500 team. Now, their hopes of winning 73 are all but dashed. They didn’t win the Cup and there’s real competition in the West for the top seed. The biggest question: Do the Spurs have OKC’s number?

The teams have their second-to-last regular season game on Tuesday, and it’s a chance for the Thunder to remind everyone why they were favorites before Wemby came to town.

Verdict: CAP

Sure, if the Spurs win and dominate again, we’ll all be back here wondering if they are just the perfect matchup for the Thunder. It’s still January, however, and championship teams don’t have must-wins before Easter. Add in the fact that Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein will most likely still be out (though I wonder how much playing time he should actually see in a potential playoff series with San Antonio, but that’s for another time), and on the Spurs side Devin Vassell may still be out. What we’ll see is another chapter in the NBA’s best burgeoning rivalry and plenty to talk about, but I still have the Thunder as favorites in a playoff series no matter what happens Tuesday.

The Nikola Jokic injury is a blessing in disguise for the Denver Nuggets

When Jokic went down on New Year’s Eve, the prevailing sentiment was that the Nuggets would be cooked without him. After all, the Nuggets have been 12.3 points per 100 possessions better than the opposition with Jokic on the court all season. The worry was that by the time he returns in a few weeks, the team would be fighting for a play-in tournament spot. And while that may still be the case – they’re in third place in the Western Conference but just two games out of the play-in – there is reason to feel enthusiasm if you’re a Nuggets fan.

Verdict: NO CAP

The biggest concern about the Nuggets beyond standings is the wear and tear on guard Jamal Murray, who is playing 38 minutes a game since Jokic was hurt. But there’s one reason to feel like there’s a light at the end of this tunnel: Peyton Watson.

He’s had 20 points in every game since Jokic’s injury up until Sunday and has emerged as a legitimate second option in his absence. The 23-year-old is sitting at 23.7 points, 6.9 rebounds and 2.2 steals plus blocks per game, including 10 paint points a game, in his last seven games without Jokic. He’s also controlling the offense and the ball more: 55% of his shots are self-created. And he’s guarding the best scorer on opposing teams every night.

The team is 4-3 without Jokic and going .500 without him is an absolute win. If he comes back to a new reliable weapon in Watson, who can help with some of those minutes when Jokic sits, then this could end up being something that pays dividends come the playoffs.

Anthony Edwards can lead Minnesota on another deep playoff run

Sunday night gave us a potential Western Conference playoff matchup between Wemby’s Spurs and Edwards’ Wolves. It was the second night of a back-to-back for both teams, yet they played like it was a playoff game. While the Spurs built an 18-point lead, it was the Wolves who came away with the win thanks to a late-game floater by Edwards after having shaken Wemby off of him.

Special shout out to Julius Randle, who put the clamps on Wemby down the stretch, too, including the game-clinching miss, but this is about what Edwards is doing this season.

Verdict: NO CAP

If there was one criticism of Edwards last season and especially in his playoff loss to OKC in the Western Conference finals, it was the lack of a definitive go-to shot that made him unstoppable. Too often Edwards settled for 3-pointers and dribbled into trouble. On the other side of the court there was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who knew how to get right to his spot on every possession no matter what defenses threw at him.

Last season, half of Edwards’ shots came from 3. This year it’s down to about 40% and he’s making 56% of his 2-pointers. The bag is evolving by the day and a guy who never lacks confidence is finding himself more confident closer to the basket. 

And that’s reflecting in the clutch too: 42% of his jumpers in the clutch are from 2. That’s up from just 19% last year. That’s the sign of a guy getting to his spot and feeling himself at more than just the 3-point line. As a result, he has clutch numbers that are insane: He’s 29-of-41 in the clutch this season. Seventy-one percent. His 80.5 effective field goal percentage in the clutch is the highest ever since play-by-play has been tracked (1997-98 season). And in the final minute of 1-score games, Ant is 9-of-10. One missed shot.

Just look at the clincher Sunday night: he put Wemby on tumble dry low, penetrated and got a clean gimme off the glass. That feels like a forced 3 or a shot in traffic just a year ago. If Edwards is going to continue to diversify the scoring and go deeper in his Louis bag, then we’re talking about someone who is going to keep giving defenses all kinds of trouble in the Spring. It just might be enough for a third-straight conference finals appearance if things fall into place.

The Grizzlies are going to get more for trading Ja Morant than the Atlanta Hawks did for trading Trae Young

For the first time since Morant came to Memphis, the team seems ready to listen to offers for their franchise All-Star. It’s been a tumultuous last few years for Morant and the Grizzlies, of course. There were the gun-related controversies, suspensions, and discord with coach Tuomas Iisalo early in the season.

While these have been unfortunate issues, they’d be manageable if Morant were still the productive superstar he was when he was leading the team to second in the West every year. But that’s not happening anymore. Ja has only played about half of the Grizz’s games over the past four seasons, and this year in particular the team is better without him (11-10 without him and 6-12 with him).

Verdict: CAP

As a result, the Grizzlies aren’t really in a prime opportunity to ask for much for Morant. He’s worse in pretty much every important category and is one of the league’s worst shooters. He’s also locked in for two years at $87 million. That’s not really appealing for anyone. 

I know Minnesota has been in conversation, partly as a result of its need for a point guard. But the team is really hitting its stride and the risk/reward of Morant should be terrifying for any Wolves fan. If you’re the Grizzlies, you have to just hope for matching salaries and hope that this gets you on the path to your rebuild, especially with all the picks the team has coming its way that it received for trading Desmond Bane to Orlando. But any Memphis fan hoping for a haul for Morant should measure expectations.

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