‘The American Carnival:’ Halftime power rankings

‘The American Carnival’ is a yearlong cultural examination of the impact of the Super Bowl halftime show far beyond entertainment. Through history, politics, race, economics and music, the series explores how 12 minutes on the most-watched stage in the country often say more about America than the game itself. 

With roughly four months until the next Super Bowl halftime performer is announced, anticipation is already building for who will follow Bad Bunny’s record-breaking set from February.

Since In Living Color rewrote the script in 1992 — and Michael Jackson cemented it a year later — the halftime show has positioned itself as a cultural barometer. Yet, when the NFL handed creative control to Roc Nation and JAŸ-Z in 2019, the selection became more deliberate than ever. It’s no longer simply about legacy acts. It’s about narrative — who the artist is, what their moment says about the culture they command and why the timing matters.

With that in mind, as part of “The American Carnival” series, these evolving monthly rankings will spotlight candidates primed to take the Super Bowl stage in Los Angeles in 2027, culminating in an announcement later this year.

So who’s closest to the most-watched platform in music?

Power Rankings breakdown

Before jumping into the rankings, let’s break down how candidates are evaluated.

The halftime probability score measures five elements that normally determine a path to the Super Bowl. Think cultural momentum, stadium performance, and the artist’s narrative. Each category is scored out of 10 points for a maximum of 50. Look at it as basically the slam dunk contest of music.

With that being said, let’s get right into the debates.

• Cultural momentum (10 points): Simply put, who owns the moment? This measures how much an artist is shaping the cultural conversation right now — from viral moments to touring dominance to their ability to capture attention across generations. The NFL views halftime as a global marketing platform. The performer needs massive reach across audiences, international appeal and the ability to command attention between the first and second halves.

• Catalog infrastructure (10 points): Halftime performers need more than hits — they need a stadium-ready catalog. The show is essentially a 12-minute greatest-hits sprint. Artists such as Beyoncé, Usher and Rihanna set the bar incredibly high.

• Storyline (10 points): The halftime show works best when it tells a story — a comeback, a cultural milestone or a defining moment in an artist’s career. Album cycles, tours and cultural relevance can all shape the narrative.

• Showtime acumen (10 points): Hits alone aren’t enough. Can the artist command 80,000 people in the stadium and more than 100 million viewers worldwide? The modern halftime show demands spectacle, sequencing and storytelling — something artists Kendrick Lamar and Bad Bunny have recently demonstrated.

• NFL compatibility (10 points): The NFL views halftime as a global marketing platform. The performer needs massive reach across audiences, international appeal and the ability to command attention between the first and second halves.

Now, for the rankings…

5. The Carters

• Cultural momentum – 6/10
• Catalog infrastructure — 10/10
• Storyline – 8/10
• Showtime acumen – 9/10
• NFL compatibility – 10/10

Halftime probability score: 43/50

The Case For: It’s JAŸ-Z. It’s Beyoncé. That alone is the selling point. But here’s what makes it interesting and even a remote possibility. The rumors of Beyoncé’s Act III album, inspired by rock music, suggest it may drop in 2026. Meanwhile, her husband, JAŸ-Z, prepares for his immensely anticipated Roots Picnic performance next week (and three Yankee Stadium shows later this summer).

That sort of hype is all the argument anyone needs — on top of selling the biggest sporting event in America. The Carters? In L.A.? During the Super Bowl? That’s why JAY’s cultural momentum right now is six. We just don’t know what’s happening or the long-term play just yet. A lot can and likely will happen between now and September. Check back next month, and this could look completely different.

The Case Against: Beyoncé has already performed at the Super Bowl twice — including knocking out the power once! She’s even done the league a solid by performing on Christmas, too. So while her name is the ultimate marketing strategy, she doesn’t need the Super Bowl. It’s also hard to see JAŸ-Z tapping himself to pull double duty at work and perform at the Super Bowl.​ 

4. Harry Styles

• Cultural momentum – 8/10
• Catalog infrastructure — 9/10
• Storyline – 9/10
• Showtime acumen – 9/10
• NFL compatibility – 10/10

Halftime probability score: 44/50

The Case For: Styles’ new album, Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally., is a break from his norm. It’s an introspective look at fame from one of the world’s biggest pop stars. Few modern dynamos combine global reach and stage command quite like Harry Styles. His solo catalog has produced multiple stadium-sized hits, and his touring history proves he can command the scale the Super Bowl demands.

Styles also lives in a rare cultural space: He’s massively popular across demographics, yet still carries the kind of charisma and showmanship that makes live performances memorable. Then there’s the whole One Direction nostalgia — and the theoretical possibility of a reunion at the Super Bowl — and the spectacle potential becomes obvious.

The Case Against: Scheduling is the biggest question here. Styles has spent the past few years touring what feels like nonstop, and his “Together Together Tour” will be one of the year’s most in demand. He would absolutely deliver the spectacle, but would he take a break from his commitment to residencies to grace the biggest stage of his legendary career?

3. Taylor Swift

• Cultural momentum – 6/10
• Catalog infrastructure — 10/10
• Storyline – 9/10
• Showtime acumen – 10/10
• NFL compatibility – 10/10

Halftime probability score: 45/50

The Case For: In short, it’s Taylor Swift. That’s the only argument you’d need. Among the global megastars, Swift sits near the very top. She’s also the biggest star yet to grace the Super Bowl halftime stage. And if 2027 is the year, expect the numbers to be nothing short of astronomical.

The Case Against: There’s truly no case against her — unless, of course, you’re waiting until the Super Bowl reportedly lands in Nashville in 2030. If she’s asked to do it and she says yes, there is no circumstance in which the NFL and Roc Nation change their minds. We’re talking about an artist who made $2 billion in ticket sales on her Eras Tour here. 

2. Justin Bieber

• Cultural momentum – 9/10
• Catalog infrastructure — 9/10
• Storyline – 10/10
• Showtime acumen – 9/10
• NFL compatibility – 9/10

Halftime probability score: 46/50

The Case For: He’s got two of the most talked-about live performances of 2026 with the Grammys and Coachella. There’s a rumored Netflix documentary on the horizon, too. One of the few boxes left to check is the Super Bowl. Bieber’s an international superstar with a catalog more than capable of capturing a stage of this magnitude. In terms of energy, Bieber would be a stark difference from the last two halves featuring Kendrick Lamar and Bad Bunny. It wouldn’t necessarily be emo, but it comes with its own weighty sense of vulnerability given the tone of Bieber’s music — and certainly his life.

The Case Against: Timing is truly the only question here. Justin Bieber’s star power is undeniable, but his recent career has been less predictable than most halftime candidates. The NFL typically prioritizes stability and sustained visibility when selecting a performer for the Super Bowl halftime show. Bieber has the global reach and then some, but the league may lean toward an artist with more consistent momentum heading into 2027.

1. Cardi B

• Cultural momentum – 10/10
• Catalog infrastructure — 9/10
• Storyline – 10/10
• Showtime acumen – 9/10
• NFL compatibility – 9/10

Halftime probability score: 47/50

The Case For: Her charisma makes the pitch easy. Cardi B is one of the most magnetic personalities in music, and her headlining the halftime show would mark the first time a solo female rapper takes the stage at the Super Bowl. That alone would make it historic. The resounding success of her “Little Miss Drama Tour” only strengthens the case that she can command arenas at the level the halftime show requires. Cardi is already a superstar. Putting her on this stage elevates her to a higher level.

The Case Against: The Roc Nation/Apple-led halftime show has increasingly allowed artists to make cultural statements — something performers such as Kendrick Lamar and Bad Bunny demonstrated masterfully. But this is the NFL we’re talking about here. The league still prefers precision over unpredictability. Cardi’s unfiltered persona is part of what makes her compelling, yet it’s also the x-factor that might give NFL decision makers pause. In an era when the halftime stage doubles as a global marketing platform, the league may wonder just how tightly it can control the message. ​

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Dark Horses: SZA, Miley Cyrus, Bruno Mars, Ed Sheeran, Olivia Dean

There’s still plenty of time between now and September, when the announcement is expected. Albums will drop, tours will reshape the conversation, and cultural cachet will shift the landscape.

That said, if the Super Bowl continues to market itself as the arena where sports, music and spectacle collide, these rankings could offer an early look at the artists who could command the most powerful stage in American entertainment. ​

Check back next month to see if Cardi B still commands the top spot — or if someone else has taken the lead to get that coveted call from Roc Nation and the NFL.

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