NBA overreactions Vol. 1: An absurdly early look at the MVP race

OK, I’ll start by acknowledging how ridiculous this premise probably is: We’re two weeks into the season and months away from anything resembling a real MVP race.

I get it. The Bulls are the best team in the East. This time last year, the Pacers were 2-4 and the 11th seed. But so far this season, we’ve seen record production from some of the league’s best players. After just one week, there were 16 40-point games – that’s almost double the record at the time. We’d already had four 50-point scorers, too, not to mention the triple-double parade from Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama looking like the next GOAT, and unexpected dominance from guys like Tyrese Maxey in Philly.

We have a fascinating look at what may already be one of the great MVP races we’ve seen probably since it was a three-man battle between Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook and James Harden in 2017.

So, let’s take a look at the current MVP probables (and don’t worry, this won’t change at all at any point in the next few, unpredictable months).

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: OK, we’re starting off with chalk here, but there’s a good reason: The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to win 70-plus games and I wouldn’t be surprised if they surpass the 73-win Warriors (2015-16). They’re already 8-0 and have not had Jalen Williams in the lineup yet because of a wrist injury. With such a crucial scorer out, teams are blitzing SGA much more than last year — he’s getting blitzed on 13% of screens, up from the 8% he saw last year and he’s still punishing teams while facing that kind of defense. Williams’ presence was sorely missed, especially early on as the Thunder had to grit through wins against the Rockets and Pacers, and it was mostly thanks to SGA keeping the team afloat in the clutch. He has 46 clutch points, which leads the league, and a 55-point game under his belt. Since those first two games, the Thunder have won the past six by a combined 89 points, with SGA sitting out most of the last few fourth quarters.

We’re gonna get to guys putting up more historic numbers, but I just don’t see a world in which a guy averaging 30/5/5 on a record-breaking win team doesn’t get MVP. 

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: In Jokic’s MVP season of 2021-22, he set the record for highest PER of all time (32.9). The previous high was Wilt Chamberlain’s 32.1 in the 1961-62 season when he averaged 50 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s PER is FORTY POINT EIGHT. I’d spent most of the offseason pleading with the Bucks and Giannis to go their separate ways, as it was clear this team wasn’t going to win a championship, and it’s clear that Giannis wanted to be on a championship team. And while I do believe that this team will still fall short of a championship, they’ve been much better than I thought they’d be. Some of that is the revelation that is point guard Ryan Rollins, whose 18 points a game (including a 32-point masterclass against the Warriors that may come back to bite them come April) elevates the Bucks’ ceiling. But a lot of that is Giannis just being supervillain Thanos on the court. He’s had 25/5/5 all five games this season, the second-longest streak to open a season. He’s the first player ever to have 200 points, 80 rebounds and 40 assists through six games.

I think we take Giannis for granted a bit. Part of it is probably the playoff shortcomings and some is probably his style of play, but you need to understand that buddy is as dominant as ever, especially in the paint. There have been seven instances of a player having 10 or more layups and dunks. Giannis has four of them. He leads the league in paint points and fast-break points.

Some of the Bucks’ numbers are a bit inflated early this season and you wonder when they’ll come back to earth, but for now if Giannis can get this team to real contention in the conference he’s going to be a real MVP contender…again.

3. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: This is probably bad timing considering the stinker he just put up in Phoenix (nine points and six turnovers is just straight up ugly). But, let’s not forget that he came out of the gates looking like the best player in the world. Sure, the 40-point games are crazy, but he’s anchoring a top-level defense that exists mostly just because he can snuff out most any shot at the rim. Their schedule has been pretty light, and the monster Mavs game to start the season is the one we’re going to talk about, but I was just as impressed with the Heat game last week. Miami was so disciplined with everything they did defensively, and I watched the game thinking Wemby was really working hard to score. But you look up and he has 27/18/6 and five blocks. The Spurs aren’t even all the way healthy yet, so if Wemby can continue to look like the best in the world and get them to a top-3 seed in the West, he may be getting his first DPOY/MVP combo, joining Giannis, Hakeem Olajuwon and Michael Jordan.

Oh yeah, back to the defense. The Spurs’ defensive efficiency is 97.9 when Wemby is on, which would be the best in the league by around 10 points. When he’s off the number rises to 121.6, which would only be above the Pelicans and the Wizards.

4. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: I started the season wondering how Luka’s weight loss would change his approach this season, and we got our answer: Luka is relentless. He’s attacking the basket and shooting 78% on two-pointers, which is second in the league.

He averaged 40/10/5 in his first four games of a season. No one has ever done that. He’s also bringing out the best in Deandre Ayton, who is the go-to screener for both Luka and Austin Reaves. I still have questions about the Lakers’ defense long term, but they look good enough to outscore anyone. Luka won’t average 40 a game, but this could be the MVP year we’ve been waiting for.

5. Jokic, Denver Nuggets: He didn’t get a triple-double in his last two games after starting with four in a row, so clearly he fell off.

For real, I don’t even know what to tell you about this dude and his numbers, even as he looks like he’s playing himself into a bit of shape. The plus-minus numbers are as Jokic-y as ever as the Nuggets are -19 with him off and +86 with him on.

6. Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers: And here’s the shocker of the bunch. The 76ers belong to Maxey and he has propelled them to the most interesting story in the NBA so far. A Sixers team that isn’t beholden to the health of Joel Embiid or Paul George is a fascinating concept. Maxey has taken the reins and established my favorite backcourt in the game right now along with rookie of the year frontrunner VJ Edgecombe. Maxey just racked up an Eastern Conference Player of the Week award with per game averages of 33.5 points and 9.8 assists.

One aspect of his game that has unlocked his best self is the return of his floater. Last season, he only took a little over one a game. Now he’s at 2.7 a game and shooting 50%, much better than the sub-40 percent he shot last year. If he continues to improve there, it’s only going to open up more for him and that offense.

Maxey is also making a run for Clutch Player of the Year as he’s averaging a league-best 10.3 points in the final frame and the Sixers were plus-66 in the fourth prior to their loss to the Bulls.

Honorable mentions who could move up

Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers: He just put up 37 against Atlanta for a Cavs team that is weathering its own injuries and inconsistencies. He’s second in the league in true shooting percentage, and if the Cavs right the ship and top the East like they should, he could be right in the MVP mix.

Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks: He’s averaging more than 30 a game. The offense is still working things out, but he’s still going to be the centerpiece. Their record is unexpectedly mediocre so far, but that may be just adjusting to their new look. I just don’t see a successful Knicks season that doesn’t put Brunson in the MVP convo.

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors: This was a much more compelling case a few days ago before two inexplicable losses against the Giannis-less Bucks and the everybody-less Pacers. He started the season on a tear, dropping 42 against the Nuggets and 35 against the Blazers. The Warriors just need to get through this truly gruesome early schedule and see if they can pull together enough wins to be in contention and get Curry in the MVP running again.

Ball Up Top: Random thoughts

Jaylen Brown’s hairline: Last week Jaylen Brown was widely clowned for some of his, uh, hair-leaving stains on opposing players’ jerseys. To his credit, he was a good sport, going on live to call LeBron James about what to do about this hairline. It was a good turn for someone who gets flack for taking himself way too seriously sometimes.

And for this, I’m Team Jaylen, because if you’ve ever been in the barbershop chair you know that barbers push that hairline spray on you like they get commission per spray. It’s like the timeshare of barbershop upgrades. A couple of years ago when I started appearing on TV, my barber at the time ambushed me with hairline spray. I jumped up and asked what the hell was going on and he said, “My man, you on ESPN. I gotta keep you looking right!” I’m going to need barbers to get hand-written consent from us before we agree to hairline spray.

The Worst Shot of the Season: Jalen Suggs has been a pivotal part of the Magic’s season, and so much of the Magic’s season is about his defense and ability to run an offense. But we’ve got to talk about this stepback, contested three that I never thought for a second would go in, but he clearly did because the shot was accompanied by a look away.

This…is not okay. Honestly, some moves need to be retired, like jerseys. Curry should own the no-look 3.

*Slams gavel*

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